My prior blog explained some of the anomalies of the last recession and how it severely impacted revenues in the healthcare staffing industry. If a worst-case scenario happens this year, and the US is faced with a double dip recession, the staffing industry will not be hurt as badly as was the case in 2009.
As explained earlier, there was an “invisible” cushion then that absorbed and decreased the need for supplemental staff. Many employed workers delayed or forestalled hospital admissions during the layoff periods while there was a “shakeout” of healthcare professionals out of the woodwork going back to work to supplant their spouses new unemployed status. There is no such caregiver cushion this time around, and hospital admissions are back on the rise. Employment figures from the past year show that increases in healthcare employment were greatest in the hospital setting, with smaller increases in the outpatient (ambulatory) and home care settings.
These statistics follow an expected trend in hospital admissions that will be tied to the aging of baby boomers over the next 20 years. There was some elasticity in census numbers as unemployment began its rise, but postponed admissions and elective surgeries related to systemic health issues do not go away. Advances in medicine and end-of-life processes will continue to raise the acuity in hospitals while expanding the current hospice networks.
The bigger question for the healthcare staffing industry is not one of demand, but who ultimately will be paying for this growing percentage of the gross domestic product?