Donald Trump and Affordable Care Act

As Donald Trump moves closer to becoming the Republican’s presidential candidate in the general election, there are new ramblings of what he would do to Obamacare if elected. Many arguments have been made against the continuance of this growing governmental entity, but odds are the ACA has already “left the station”, never to be diminished or ended. The last battles are likely to be held in state legislatures where expansion of Medicaid and State sponsored exchanges are still in flux. A particularly interesting outcome will be the Commonwealth of Kentucky where a recently elected Republican governor has vowed to dismantle and discontinue a well-entrenched statewide exchange that had been operating for years.

If history is to be repeated, the Affordable Care Act is here to stay, and massive changes to its structure are very doubtful. Let’s take a quick look at what was said in the 60’s when Medicare, a similarly tagged national health plan was proposed.

Ronald Reagan: “[I]f you don’t [stop Medicare] and I don’t do it, one of these days you and I are going to spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it once was like in America when men were free.” [1961]

George H.W. Bush: Described Medicare in 1964 as “socialized medicine.” [1964]

Barry Goldwater: “Having given our pensioners their medical care in kind, why not food baskets, why not public housing accommodations, why not vacation resorts, why not a ration of cigarettes for those who smoke and of beer for those who drink.” [1964]

Bob Dole: In 1996, while running for the Presidency, Dole openly bragged that he was one of 12 House members who voted against creating Medicare in 1965. “I was there, fighting the fight, voting against Medicare . . . because we knew it wouldn’t work in 1965.” [1965]

If these arguments sound familiar, so will the likely outcome of the more recent protests against the ACA. In a period when both major parties are struggling to figure out who their constituencies really are, odds are the Affordable Care Act will just keep lumbering along.

Good news for those seeing increased healthcare dollars expanding their business, but not necessarily for those desiring less government intervention.